World Cup 2026 Preview: Mexico Opens At Home, Group A Chaos, and Canada’s Golden Moment

🏆 Match Predictions

🏆 Big Match of the Day: Mexico vs South Africa – The Azteca Roars Again

The World Cup kicks off Thursday when Mexico host South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, and this isn’t just any opening match. The two teams last met in the 2010 World Cup opener, which ended 1-1 with Siphiwe Tshabalala scoring for South Africa and Rafael Marquez equalizing for Mexico. Sixteen years later, same matchup, completely different pressure.

El Tricolor open the tournament at Estadio Azteca and will hope to put on a show for the home fans, playing at altitude in front of a sold-out crowd. But here’s the thing that keeps me up at night: Mexico haven’t played a competitive fixture since July 2025, with 11 friendlies since then, losing only two matches but drawing six, leaving them with just three victories. That’s not exactly the form you want heading into a home World Cup prediction opener.

Mexico’s path through Group A matters enormously for their World Cup predictions. After South Africa, El Tricolor will take on Korea Republic and Czech Republic, with the first match probably representing their best chance of picking up three points. And they desperately need momentum. Mexico, under pressure to deliver a deep run on home soil after their group-stage exit at Qatar 2022, cannot afford a stumble against a South Africa side returning to the World Cup for the first time since 2010. This is about breaking the curse of the Round of 16, where they’ve been stuck for generations.

Fulham’s Raul Jimenez remains the hosts’ primary attacking threat and will lead the line for Javier Aguirre’s side, with the veteran striker on target as they thrashed Serbia 5-1 in their final pre-tournament friendly. That Serbia result gives you hope, but Mexico head into Thursday’s match off the back of eight successive unbeaten friendlies in 2026, including wins over Ghana, Australia and Serbia in their last three. Still, friendlies are friendlies. The Azteca atmosphere will either lift them to another level or expose the nerves of playing at home.

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Look, Mexico should win the opener based on talent and home advantage alone. But South Africa’s three losses in their last five games showed they can be vulnerable when pressed, though their 3-2 win over Zimbabwe showed attacking intent. The World Cup predictions favor Mexico heavily at 67% to win, but South Africa drew with them in 2010, and none of South Africa’s nine games at the World Cup have ended goalless, so goals should be on the menu.

Friday brings us the Group A clash that could define who joins Mexico in the Round of 32. The Opta supercomputer rates South Korea as favourites with a 42.9% win probability to Czechia’s 31.1%, but that’s closer than you’d think. Czechia return to the World Cup for the first time in 20 years under manager Miroslav Koubek, the tournament’s oldest manager, who took over in December 2025. They’ve traveled the hard road through playoffs, beating Ireland and Denmark on penalties.

Czechia use their wingbacks to spam crosses into the box where Patrik Schick can use his size and heading ability, alongside striker Tomas Chory or Tomas Soucek running into the box, with 6’6″ Chory providing massive aerial presence. It’s simple but brutally effective, and South Korea lost to Austria and Ivory Coast by an aggregate scoreline of 5-0 in recent friendlies, which should terrify their fans.

Then there’s Canada on Friday afternoon in Toronto. Canada face this tournament with the weight of home expectation while Bosnia and Herzegovina arrive having battled through one of UEFA’s most demanding playoff routes. The betting has Canada at 55% to win, but Bosnia’s last six matches show one win, five draws and zero losses, with recent draws against Italy, Wales and Austria proving they’re hard to beat even if they don’t often turn matches into open shootouts.

Only two Bosnian players remain from their 2014 World Cup squad: 40-year-old striker Edin Dzeko and experienced defender Sead Kolasinac, but this is a young squad set up superbly by coach Sergej Barbarez. They beat Italy. At home. Let that sink in. Canada might have the home crowd and the superior attacking talent, but Bosnia specialize in making favorites uncomfortable.

The expanded format changes everything this year. The top two teams will automatically advance to the round of 32 in the expanded 48-team tournament, along with the eight best third-placed teams across 12 groups. That makes these opening matches absolutely critical. Drop points early and you’re chasing shadows. Win and you control your destiny.

Mexico’s curse of the fifth game looms large over this entire tournament. They’ve crashed out in the Round of 16 seven consecutive times, but Javier Aguirre will lead his country in the World Cup for a third time after 2002 and 2010, with only France’s Didier Deschamps managing at more World Cups with the same nation. The man knows this stage. He also knows what’s at stake.

What fascinates me about Group A is how the matches layer on each other. South Korea and Czechia kick off hours after Mexico and South Africa, which means they’ll know exactly what the group picture looks like before they touch the ball. That psychological edge matters. If Mexico stumble against South Africa, suddenly the entire group cracks wide open.

The World Cup preview wouldn’t be complete without addressing the elephant in the room: Guillermo Ochoa will join Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi as the only players in history to appear in six different World Cups, with the 40-year-old set to make history in the final international tournament of his career. Absolute legend behavior, regardless of what happens. But will he start? Luis Angel Malagon missed the World Cup squad with injuries and Raul Rangel will start in between the sticks with Ochoa in the squad as cover.